Gross Domestic Product Per Capita
Description:
Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (per person) is the broadest measure of individual economic well-being available by state and metropolitan area. It is calculated by dividing GDP by population.
GDP for the nation, states, and metro areas are produced in both current dollars and inflation-adjusted (real) dollars. The inflation adjustment is unique to each geographic area. Only annual data are available by state and metropolitan area. Though estimates of current dollar GDP by state go back to 1963, inflation-adjusted data are available only back to 1987. Gross domestic product data are available by metro area only since 2001; county data are not available.
Population estimates are available annually for the United States, Arizona, and the six Arizona metropolitan areas going back decades.
Data Source:
U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis: http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm. Estimates by state are released in June, consisting of advanced (preliminary) estimates for the preceding calendar year by sector, as well as revised estimates for the prior year by sector and subsector. Metro area estimates are released in September, consisting of very preliminary estimates for the preceding calendar year by sector, as well as revised estimates for the prior year by sector and subsector.
Annual population estimates, expressed as of July 1, are produced by the U. S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. The national and state estimates are released in December, with metropolitan area figures released the following March. The time series of population estimates is most easily accessed from the BEA. For state and national data: http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/default.cfm?selTable=summary. For metropolitan area data: http://www.bea.gov/regional/reis/default.cfm?selTable=CA1-3§ion=2.
Data Quality Comments:
The GDP estimates for the latest year are labeled as “advanced” or “accelerated”—an abbreviated set of mostly preliminary data and a simplified methodology are used to generate these estimates. Even after the estimates are revised, some of the inputs to the calculation of GDP by state and especially by metropolitan area are estimated.
Population estimates for 2000 through 2010 have been revised for the nation and Arizona based on the 2010 census count, but the revisions for the metro areas have not yet been released.
Gross Domestic Product Per Capita, 2010
Visualization Notes:
A reasonable target is for GDP per capita, a measure of economic well-being, to be within 5 percent of the national average in Arizona and within 5 percent of the U.S. metro average in the state’s larger metro areas. The most recent data for GDP per capita by metro area are for 2010. The preliminary data indicate that GDP per capita was at least 10 percent less than the U.S. metro average in each of Arizona’s six metro areas.
Gross Domestic Product Per Capita as a Percentage of the U.S. Metro Average, 2010
Visualization Notes:
In 2010, GDP per capita was 10 percent lower than the national metropolitan average in Metro Phoenix and at least 31 percent below average in each of the other five metro areas. The substantial variation in GDP per capita across the metro areas is a result of such factors as industrial mix, household size, and the number of workers per household.
Gross Domestic Product Per Capita in Arizona as a Percentage of the National Average
Visualization Notes:
A reasonable target is for Arizona’s GDP per capita to be within 5 percent of the national average. This was the case from 1970 through 1974. The percentage of the national average generally exceeded 90 through 1987, but has been below 90 in most years since then. Arizona’s GDP per capita as a percentage of the U.S. average fell to 84.1 in 2010, the second-lowest figure since 1969.
Gross Domestic Product Per Capita in Arizona and the United States, Inflation-Adjusted Percent Change
Visualization Notes:
Nationally, the annual percent change in GDP per capita is cyclical, with decreases or small gains during economic recessions and increases in excess of 2 percent during strong economic expansions. The percent change in Arizona varies from less than the national average during recessions to more than the U.S. average during expansions. Arizona’s change was less than the national average in each year from 2007 through 2010, and was negative from 2008 through 2010.
Gross Domestic Product Per Capita, Inflation-Adjusted Percent Change
Visualization Notes:
During the strong economic expansion in 2005 and 2006, the annual inflation-adjusted percent change in GDP per capita was positive in Arizona and in each of Arizona’s metro areas. In the recessionary years of 2008 and 2009, every metro posted a loss. In 2010, only one Arizona metro posted a gain, though the magnitude of the decline was slight in four metros.
Between 2001 and 2010, the annual average increase was 0.7 percent nationally but only 0.1 percent in Arizona. The annual average slightly exceeded the national metropolitan average of 0.6 percent in the Flagstaff and Yuma metro areas. The annual averages were marginally negative for the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas and considerably negative for the Lake Havasu City and Prescott metro areas.
Data Source
U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis: http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm. Estimates by state are released in June, consisting of advanced (preliminary) estimates for the preceding calendar year by sector, as well as revised estimates for the prior year by sector and subsector. Metro area estimates are released in September, consisting of very preliminary estimates for the preceding calendar year by sector, as well as revised estimates for the prior year by sector and subsector.
Annual population estimates, expressed as of July 1, are produced by the U. S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. The national and state estimates are released in December, with metropolitan area figures released the following March. The time series of population estimates is most easily accessed from the BEA. For state and national data: http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/default.cfm?selTable=summary. For metropolitan area data: http://www.bea.gov/regional/reis/default.cfm?selTable=CA1-3§ion=2.
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