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Implied Net Migration by Age, 2000 to 2010

Description: 

Every 10 years as of April 1, the U.S. Census Bureau conducts a census of the nation’s population. The decennial census questionnaire asked respondents to supply the age of each person in two ways: in years as of April 1, 2010 and by providing the exact birth date.

For the purposes of this indicator, an age cohort includes all people born within a five-year period. For example, those born between 1946 and 1950 were between 50 and 54 years old as of the 2000 census and between 60 and 64 years old as of the 2010 census. (This is an approximation, since the census date is April 1, not January 1.) It is possible to estimate net migration between two censuses in an age cohort by subtracting the population count in the earlier census from that of the same cohort in the latest census and adding back the number of people in that cohort who died during the 10-year period. For the two youngest age cohorts (less than 5 and 5 to 9), the number of births over a five-year period is substituted for the earlier census count.

In this case, net migration is the sum of domestic migrants and international immigrants, both legal and undocumented. Net migration is the difference between in-migration and out-migration, but it is not possible to estimate these components from the decennial census data.

Numeric estimates of net migration by age are presented on Arizona Indicators for Arizona and the state’s most populous counties. The net migration rate is provided for the state and all 15 counties. There are several ways to calculate the net migration rate. Most commonly, the size of the age cohort at the beginning of the period is used, though this method cannot be used to calculate rates for the age groups less than 10 years old. The number of people in the cohort at the end of the period also can be used. Rates commonly are calculated by the size of the United States population in the cohort, but with many migrants arriving from other countries, this method has its shortcomings. For this indicator, the size of the cohort in the county (or state) in 2000 was used; migration rates across counties are more easily compared than if the national population is used.

Data Source: 

U. S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. For 2010 data: http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. For 2000 data: http://www.census.gov/main/www/cen2000.html.

Data Quality Comments: 

The net migration figures are estimates. In addition to the decennial censuses not counting all individuals and some individuals misreporting their age, the use of calendar year annual data on births and deaths and census counts as of April 1 introduce some error. Moreover, the use of five-year age groups from both the censuses and the death data (instead of single year of age) results in additional imprecision.

iconImplied Net Migration by Age, 2000 to 2010

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Visualization Notes:

The estimated net number of migrants to Arizona between 2000 and 2010 was highest in the age cohorts from 10 to 29 and in those from 60 to 69. The age is expressed as of 2010 while the migration may have occurred at any time between 2000 and 2010, so the age of the migrant at the time of the move on average is five years younger than their age in 2010 (that is, Arizona gained population from migration particularly among those from 5 to 24 and 55 to 64 years old at the time of the move). Since those under the age of 10 in 2010 were not yet born in 2000, the implied net out-migration of those less than 5 years old and the relatively low net migration of those 5 to 9 years old are based on the number of births in Arizona. It is unclear to what extent the low migration estimates reflect high out migration of young children and to what extent they indicate an undercount of children in the decennial census. Young children in particular have historically been undercounted

The age pattern of net migration varies considerably across four regions of the state: Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal counties and the balance of the state (the other 12 counties combined). In Maricopa County, a strong peak occurred among young adults (those from about 18 to 29 at the time of their move) but net migration of those at retirement age was not much higher than net migration of the middle-age groups. Pima County had a strong peak at college age, net out-migration among young adults (those from 25 to 29 at the time of the move), and a stronger rebound in net migration at retirement age (particularly those from 55 to 64 at the time of the move). In the balance of the state, a net outflow occurred among very young adults (roughly those from 18 through the mid-20s at the time of the move) while a strong net inflow occurred among those of retirement age. Pinal County’s net migration was relatively weak among very young adults and strongest among young adults (those in their 20s and early 30s).

iconImplied Net Migration, 2000 to 2010 Rate Per Thousand Based on 2000 Population

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Visualization Notes:

Fast-growing Pinal County by far had the highest overall migration rate (based on the 10 or older population) between 2000 and 2010. Mohave and Yavapai were the only other counties with a rate greater than that of the state. Apache and Greenlee counties experienced net out-migration, and the net migration rate was very small in Navajo County.

iconImplied Net Migration by Age in Arizona and Counties with the Highest Rates, 2000 to 2010 Rate Based on 2000 County Population

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Visualization Notes:

Considerable variations in the age pattern of the migration rate exist across Arizona’s counties. Most counties experienced net out-migration of those from age 18 to 24 at the time of the move. A lack of job opportunities and youths leaving for higher education, job training, or to join the military are among the reasons for the net outflow in the years after graduating from high school. In contrast, the net migration rates in this age group were the highest of any age groups in Coconino, Maricopa, and Pima counties, each of which has a major university. In addition, job opportunities are much greater in Maricopa and Pima counties than in most of the rest of the state.

In most of the other counties, the net migration rate was highest among those approaching and reaching traditional retirement age (those from their 50s through mid-60s at the time of the move). In contrast, net out migration of the elderly occurs in all counties, but particularly those outside the major urban areas. This migration is driven by health care needs: to be close to major medical facilities and/or to be close to family.

iconImplied Net Migration by Age in Arizona Counties with Medium-High Rates, 2000 to 2010 Rate Based on 2000 County Population

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Visualization Notes:

Considerable variations in the age pattern of the migration rate exist across Arizona’s counties. Most counties experienced net out-migration of those from age 18 to 24 at the time of the move. A lack of job opportunities and youths leaving for higher education, job training, or to join the military are among the reasons for the net outflow in the years after graduating from high school. In contrast, the net migration rates in this age group were the highest of any age groups in Coconino, Maricopa, and Pima counties, each of which has a major university. In addition, job opportunities are much greater in Maricopa and Pima counties than in most of the rest of the state.

In most of the other counties, the net migration rate was highest among those approaching and reaching traditional retirement age (those from their 50s through mid-60s at the time of the move). In contrast, net out migration of the elderly occurs in all counties, but particularly those outside the major urban areas. This migration is driven by health care needs: to be close to major medical facilities and/or to be close to family.

iconImplied Net Migration by Age in Arizona Counties with Medium-Low Rates, 2000 to 2010 Rate Based on 2000 County Population

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Visualization Notes:

Considerable variations in the age pattern of the migration rate exist across Arizona’s counties. Most counties experienced net out-migration of those from age 18 to 24 at the time of the move. A lack of job opportunities and youths leaving for higher education, job training, or to join the military are among the reasons for the net outflow in the years after graduating from high school. In contrast, the net migration rates in this age group were the highest of any age groups in Coconino, Maricopa, and Pima counties, each of which has a major university. In addition, job opportunities are much greater in Maricopa and Pima counties than in most of the rest of the state.

In most of the other counties, the net migration rate was highest among those approaching and reaching traditional retirement age (those from their 50s through mid-60s at the time of the move). In contrast, net out migration of the elderly occurs in all counties, but particularly those outside the major urban areas. This migration is driven by health care needs: to be close to major medical facilities and/or to be close to family.

iconImplied Net Migration by Age in Arizona Counties with the Lowest Rates, 2000 to 2010 Rate Based on 2000 County Population

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Visualization Notes:

Considerable variations in the age pattern of the migration rate exist across Arizona’s counties. Most counties experienced net out-migration of those from age 18 to 24 at the time of the move. A lack of job opportunities and youths leaving for higher education, job training, or to join the military are among the reasons for the net outflow in the years after graduating from high school. In contrast, the net migration rates in this age group were the highest of any age groups in Coconino, Maricopa, and Pima counties, each of which has a major university. In addition, job opportunities are much greater in Maricopa and Pima counties than in most of the rest of the state.

In most of the other counties, the net migration rate was highest among those approaching and reaching traditional retirement age (those from their 50s through mid-60s at the time of the move). In contrast, net out migration of the elderly occurs in all counties, but particularly those outside the major urban areas. This migration is driven by health care needs: to be close to major medical facilities and/or to be close to family.