Cumulative Percent Change in Inflation-Adjusted and Seasonally Adjusted Earnings in Arizona Over an Entire Economic Cycle Starting From the Peak of the Prior Economic Cycle
The atypical nature of the current cycle is clearly displayed, especially using the dating of Arizona’s earnings. The period of decline in inflation-adjusted and seasonally adjusted earnings in Arizona was much longer than in prior recessions; only one of the historical cycles was nearly as deep. In that case (the 1973-80 cycle), a strong expansion began as soon as the trough was reached, with the recessionary losses made up during the next five quarters. In the current cycle, the recovery has been less robust. In second quarter 2014 (29 quarters after the prior cyclical peak, using the dating of Arizona earnings), real earnings was still 1.1 percent below the peak — not quite 91 percent of the recessionary losses had been recovered 17 quarters after the trough.