Implied Net Migration by Age, 2000 to 2010
The estimated net number of migrants to Arizona between 2000 and 2010 was highest in the age cohorts from 10 to 29 and in those from 60 to 69. The age is expressed as of 2010 while the migration may have occurred at any time between 2000 and 2010, so the age of the migrant at the time of the move on average is five years younger than their age in 2010 (that is, Arizona gained population from migration particularly among those from 5 to 24 and 55 to 64 years old at the time of the move). Since those under the age of 10 in 2010 were not yet born in 2000, the implied net out-migration of those less than 5 years old and the relatively low net migration of those 5 to 9 years old are based on the number of births in Arizona. It is unclear to what extent the low migration estimates reflect high out migration of young children and to what extent they indicate an undercount of children in the decennial census. Young children in particular have historically been undercounted
The age pattern of net migration varies considerably across four regions of the state: Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal counties and the balance of the state (the other 12 counties combined). In Maricopa County, a strong peak occurred among young adults (those from about 18 to 29 at the time of their move) but net migration of those at retirement age was not much higher than net migration of the middle-age groups. Pima County had a strong peak at college age, net out-migration among young adults (those from 25 to 29 at the time of the move), and a stronger rebound in net migration at retirement age (particularly those from 55 to 64 at the time of the move). In the balance of the state, a net outflow occurred among very young adults (roughly those from 18 through the mid-20s at the time of the move) while a strong net inflow occurred among those of retirement age. Pinal County’s net migration was relatively weak among very young adults and strongest among young adults (those in their 20s and early 30s).